Corona and the daily life in Italy

[FFF]

Chris,
do you know this?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Terry]

Chris

There is an element to this that is totally statistical.

I suggest you look up articles related to the Polio Epidemic of the 50's and development of the Salk Vaccine..


From Time Magazine:
"In 1952, the worst polio outbreak in American history infected 58,000 people, killing more than 3,000 and paralyzing 21,000 — the majority of them children. As TIME reported, “Parents were haunted by the stories of children stricken suddenly by the telltale cramps and fever. Public swimming pools were deserted for fear of contagion. And year after year polio delivered thousands of people into hospitals and wheelchairs, or into the nightmarish canisters called iron lungs.”


The medical element is of course totally different.

All that any country can do, at the moment is limit the rate at which the virus takes hold within its borders. Eventually that will be not be practical or useful.

The strongest instinct common to the human race is that of self preservation. Individuals will act accordingly - irrespective of government regulations. With luck a vaccine will be found.

Terry

[wriedmann]

Hi Chris,
apart from death rates there seems to that for people that has survived Corona there is a loss of lung capacity of 20/30%.
Currently, the deads are mostly elder people, but also younger people needs intensive care (and lung machines). The current numbers say that about 80% has no or light symptoms, but 20% need hospital care, and about 5% intensive care.
Only yesterday in Italy have been died 366 persons because of Corona (and we had over 3.500 new infections).
Wolfgang

[Karl-Heinz]

Hi Chris,

it´s a few days old, but among other explanations you'll find a flu/corona statistic here

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... ly-common/

regards
Karl-Heinz

[omoser]

Here are the actual official numbers in charts:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... ee1b9125cd

And here are the statistics compared globally:

https://perspective-daily.de/article/1181/r5DhQJ1S

Stay healthy all together!

[Chris]

And here are the statistics compared globally:

https://perspective-daily.de/article/1181/r5DhQJ1S

I have seen virus related articles by this author circulating very very intensively, seems he has made quite an impact. May I ask what are the credentials of this person, to make such very important analysis like that? This is all I could find about him:

https://www.ted.com/talks/tomas_pueyo_w ... anguage=en

[ic2]

Guys, can anybody point me to reliable data of infection and death rates due to diseases like influenza and similar in the recent previous years? I am trying to do research on that, but am getting very conflicting results.

Yes. This a very good site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
There are a lot of graphs you can click.

Also this one is good but sometimes behind:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

It is important to realize that the Total confirmed cases (at the time of writing around 180.000) is different than the number of active cases. You have to subtract (again: at the time of writing) 78.000 recoveries and 7000 deaths.

A very important graph is the growth factor graph on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... rus-cases/.
If it's below the ed line (<1) it is a sign of decline. Apart from a huge peek on Feb 11 (a change of measurement) there have been a number of days with the factor <1 or near 1. Saturday it was 1,02, yesterday 1,16. They have separate graphs with and without China, but as the number of new cases in China is low the last period, it doesn't differ at the end. The same page shows Active cases and the sharp rise since last week is pretty disturbing. But my guess is that it started to decline around Feb 18 in China but before started to rise because of the increase in the rest of the world, especially Europe. Let's all hope that the much stricter measurements + common sense in other parts of the world than China help bend this curve down. Probably the only good thing in Karl-Heinz article is that the new cases in the first infection source Codogno apparently stopped.

I can also recommend reading this https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... simulator/
It shows the spread ranging from "without measurements " and "extensive distancing". The latter is what was done in China, Hong Kong and Singapore where growth is very low now. So it does seem to help and reading the article Karl-Heinz pointed to it is especially necessary to slow down the spread to increase the chance that people can get hospitalized if necessary.

Finally it's remarkable that on many sites it is written that handshaking is the largest source of infection. Our prime minister thought that asking to stop shaking hands should solve the problem but since last night we are in about the same 'home isolation' situation as other countries: closed public places, request to work at home as much as possible, etc.

Dick

[Chris]

This is not what I asked though, I asked about data regarding influenza impact in PREVIOUS years.

[FFF]

Sorry, sloppy reading...
Found this on the site i gave earlier:
"..Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.."
As of now Corona is at 7,139 - for the about three months this scourge is loose.

[ic2]

Hi Chris,

This is not what I asked though, I asked about data regarding influenza impact in PREVIOUS years.

I read too fast....

Via the main page of https://www.worldometers.info/ where all kind of statistics are life updated, I found this:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

It's only US figures but we're talking about a range of 12000-60000 death. For Europe I found 50.000-70.000 in http://www.euromomo.eu/.

Per disease (USA) https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm; some global figures in https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-shee ... s-of-death.

Dick