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TOPIC: We now at 1500+...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Using technology

The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. 1 week 6 days ago #13835

  lumberjack's Avatar Topic Author lumberjack Offline Posts: 661
Not going to say too much, I believe the graph says it all...
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Johan Nel
George, South Africa
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The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. 1 week 6 days ago #13841

  mainhatten's Avatar mainhatten Offline Posts: 108

lumberjack wrote: Not going to say too much, I believe the graph says it all...

Yes, but only insofar as that european states had ample warning and tests available, isolated first occurrences and had hence a breather period until asymptomatic spreaders seeded enough to make certain exponential curve was started.

First occurrence is easiest way to build such comparisons - but better comparison can be reached when using a certain number clearly already in spreading phase like 100 or 500. Even doing that there are marked differences between tsts available, tests done and so on. Other measures, like first death, death count rise and so on also are not easy to compare due to different age pyramids and triage hightening count if available beds are all filled, as that and age structure seem to play a big role in Italy.

SA starting to rise sooner I'd summarize under first occurrence not realized.as early as elsewhere: Germany "found" first infections in plane evacuating citizens from china early February and company Webasto in late January, which both were quaranteened. That is the ONLY reason of long parallel line at start, and the identical slope of rise when infection was spreading just proves that this period was gambled away.

my 0.02€
thomas

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. 1 week 5 days ago #13842

  lumberjack's Avatar Topic Author lumberjack Offline Posts: 661
We now at 554...weekend 1000
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Johan Nel
George, South Africa

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. 1 week 5 days ago #13844

  wriedmann's Avatar wriedmann Away Posts: 2206
Hi Johan,

We now at 554...weekend 1000

we have tuesday... at saturday your country will be a lot over 1000, I think.
Here rates are increasing about 15% every day, and Italy now seems in the phase where the incremention rates seem to slow down a bit.
Wolfgang
Wolfgang Riedmann
Meran, South Tyrol, Italy

www.riedmann.it - docs.xsharp.it

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. 1 week 5 days ago #13852

  lumberjack's Avatar Topic Author lumberjack Offline Posts: 661

lumberjack wrote: We now at 554...weekend 1000

704 and counting...
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Johan Nel
George, South Africa

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. 1 week 4 days ago #13861

  mainhatten's Avatar mainhatten Offline Posts: 108

lumberjack wrote:

lumberjack wrote: We now at 554...weekend 1000

704 and counting...


As symptoms will show 3 to 18 days after infection happens, you will see further exponential rise in the next days and have to hope that the angle of log scale is/falls low enough that by the end of next week infection count is still in low 5 figures.
Infection rate less encumbered by warmer climate than hoped for at first (see Iran and Egypt) still might have something to do with "window of opportunity" standing wide open as no antibodies currently bolster "immunity". Not enough data...

don't panic, try to plan on data known to be insufficient
thomas

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. 1 week 4 days ago #13866

  ic2's Avatar ic2 Offline Posts: 646
A model which has proven to be pretty reliable, was made March 11 by a Dutch (Eindhoven) University for 12 countries:
www.tue.nl/en/our-university/departments...h-of-new-infections/
They wrote yesterday that it had been a bit too pessimistic for The Netherlands and the USA.

Thomas is right however when he says you can prove and predict much but it depends how you look at it. Starting from the first deaths, or the 1st 100 cases, graphs look a lot less grim.

I find the daily growth factor graphs on www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/corona...#cases-growth-factor good. Just like the numbers of most individual countries you can see that there is no stable trend yet. March 21 it was 0,96, meaning a small decline, then it rose 2 days to 1,27 and March 24 it's 1,06. I think the absolute numbers are still "low" (compared to the flue for example) and a small change in tests, registering, or a bit larger outbreak in a specific area can increase growth dramatically in 1 day while the other day the growth falls so sharply that you can read "See, a lock down works". Probably we have millions of people infected in a few weeks with a few 100.000's of death (seasonal flue kills 300,000 to 650,000 people a year, up from earlier figures 250000-50000 according to the Lancelot ( www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/articl...lltext#seccestitle10 ) and perhaps all these drastic measurements will finally have effect and the world won't reach these figures.

In short: it is easy to worry about statistics but there are too many unsure factors. It can go either way...

Dick

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. 1 week 3 days ago #13885

  mainhatten's Avatar mainhatten Offline Posts: 108

ic2 wrote: A model which has proven to be pretty reliable, was made March 11 by a Dutch (Eindhoven) University for 12 countries:
www.tue.nl/en/our-university/departments...h-of-new-infections/
They wrote yesterday that it had been a bit too pessimistic for The Netherlands and the USA.

Nice find! A few points: Such curve fittings tend/try to be better than reality, which in part is reflected in the VERY different scales shown on X any Y axes of graphs of different countries. They can be interpreted as markers of other hidden variables: such as testing only done on symptomatic patients vs. contact persons, age pyramid differences and so on. This is a methological weakness of the approach: on the other hand it has a benefit, insofar as curve fitting within subgroup is not diffused with the error variance introduced by the different values typically distributed on at different strata in countries looked at. That way inhabitants of said country get a better approximation of their surroundings.

Thomas is right however when he says you can prove and predict much but it depends how you look at it. Starting from the first deaths, or the 1st 100 cases, graphs look a lot less grim.

I feel less morbid seeing that others also view lethality as better comparison marker. There is still large area of "sampling" error, as not all deaths are routinely checked for Corona - and stats from Italy also show a marked difference of (expected deaths + identified Corona cases) vs. actual deaths since January, which IMO should be attributed mostly to Corona - even if some part might be indirect, as in Corona patient filling the bed usually going to non-Corona patient.

I find the daily growth factor graphs on www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/corona...#cases-growth-factor good. Just like the numbers of most individual countries you can see that there is no stable trend yet. March 21 it was 0,96, meaning a small decline, then it rose 2 days to 1,27 and March 24 it's 1,06. I think the absolute numbers are still "low" (compared to the flue for example) and a small change in tests, registering, or a bit larger outbreak in a specific area can increase growth dramatically in 1 day while the other day the growth falls so sharply that you can read "See, a lock down works".

I know the site, personally prefer /#countries, as growth pattern per se was clear since end of February.
Missing good site on # of tests done, currently using ourworldindata.org/covid-testing and ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data - Led me to plan personal tactics of trying to bolster immune system to lessen "Window of Opportunity" and search for patterns of combating that thing without killing economy or surpassing big brother dreams of some big way. Will be interesing to see if China can avoid 2. wave, and how they do it. Temperature checking often coupled with contact hunting might keep infection rate down, but is hard to stomach for anybody knowing what can be done with the profiles generated that way.

Probably we have millions of people infected in a few weeks with a few 100.000's of death (seasonal flue kills 300,000 to 650,000 people a year, up from earlier figures 250000-50000 according to the Lancelot ( www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/articl...lltext#seccestitle10 ) and perhaps all these drastic measurements will finally have effect and the world won't reach these figures.
In short: it is easy to worry about statistics but there are too many unsure factors. It can go either way...

The really bad point is: unless a working vaccine is found soon, measures reaching same effect have to be in place within a few weeks to start economy again. Thats my reason for looking at China (somewhat dubious on the near perfect elimination...) and to South Korea.
About the only thing German gov did well was push for high test# early on - cheap tests for current infection and recovery from infection (with luck granting immunity for 6-12 months) would be a huge step in direction I hope to see, as well as mandatory temperature measurement at least at ports of entry, pehaps coupled with tests on signs of infection. The contingency plan is to hack together about 100000 breather machines - below current hospital standard, but probably better than no machine at all. Here I expect we will buy either Chinese or American models, as we are regulating ourselves too much.
Next week # of new infections and week later # of deaths will show effects of lockdown working. Another way to calculate is that with recovery time of less than 30 days of those needing hospitalization and a guessed factor of 80% symptom-free to symptom-harmless needing only isolation in theory you could handle new infection rate of 10-15% of all currently infected (they NEED to be all identified, not only those showing stronger symptoms... which currently clearly is NOT the case), as mortality then might stay as low as in Singapore, China except hard hit area or South Korea while building herd immunity. Vaccine still much preferred!

Interesting times...
thomas

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. 1 week 3 days ago #13886

  lumberjack's Avatar Topic Author lumberjack Offline Posts: 661

lumberjack wrote:

lumberjack wrote: We now at 554...weekend 1000

704 and counting...

We have reached 907...

We now 1 hour 40 minutes into total lock-down in South Africa... All business except essential services are allowed to operate and even they have reduced their hours. Food/Health and some other essential services are still operating. Even those have some strict measurements. Supermarkets need to lock non-essential alleys, yes they not even allowed to sell clothes/cigarettes/alcohol... the list goes on and on...

Are we going to contain the spread of Covid-19? I doubt it... As Nostradamus said: I see in the year with the twin digits (2020)...

Closer to home in the words of "Seer" van Rensburg, a Boer prophet who lived during the 1900's: "I see a dark period in South Africa when the worlds eyes will be turned to Europe, a dark cloud moves over SA from the East and the Boers will move West and the land will be filled with white tents..." Well up to today everything he said became true regarding this country... Let's not speculate, time will tell...
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Johan Nel
George, South Africa

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. 1 week 3 days ago #13887

  mainhatten's Avatar mainhatten Offline Posts: 108
Hi Johan,

lumberjack wrote: Are we going to contain the spread of Covid-19? I doubt it... As Nostradamus said: I see in the year with the twin digits (2020)...


I wrote earlier that I believe we will be hosts a new virus. So what, it is only nature, if not Rock'n'Roll.
Snap out of it - Even the Chinese, who encountered the virus first and had to work on no data at all, were able to survive:

Do the simple math yourself:
assets.tue.nl/fileadmin/content/pers/202...ion_Corona_Virus.pdf
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...40299423467b48e9ecf6

to calculate mortality if tested positive a) if inside Hubei b) elsewhere in mainland China
to get an idea how well humans can cope with harsh, but intelligent measures
add the knowledge that you can a) bolster your own bodies defenses (a little) b) can modify behavior to minimize risc of infection

www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/corona...restrictions-us.html
www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavir...a-explained/12089028

Even if your country was at first following flawed reasoning resulting in more deaths than necessary,
"just" do your damn best to allow your lump of cells to survive
Rekindle that fighting spirit - or at least determination to out outsmart that virus...

(is a friendly online jump-starting-kick-in-the-behind allowed under social distancing?)
thomas

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Help available 6 days 23 hours ago #13914

  kitz's Avatar kitz Offline Posts: 26
Hallo all,
the worst thing is that there is a way to get/stay healthy very easy and it is not recognized my medical services (or banned?...)
It is ClO2 (cloride dioxide) sold, allowed and used to make drinkable water. either mobile (in the jungle e.g.) or in even large houses.
This can be used to fight all viruses, a lot of people use it including myself and my family.
Someone found out it helped against malaria, being stuck in jungle some 100 miles from help. So he used it to drink for his ill colleagues who recovered in hours, afterwards for himself catching malaria, too, and it cured again.
Source: e.g. aquarius-prolife.com/en, documented as water desinfection.
How to use it: andreaskalcker.com/en in "what is MMS/CDS" and "Protocols"
This guy is working in Switzerland several years to get approval as medicine for this, he expects 4 more years to go.
Hope that is of interest for someone, you have to decide yourself...
Kurt

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Help available 6 days 20 hours ago #13917

  ic2's Avatar ic2 Offline Posts: 646
Hello Kurt,

ClO2 (cloride dioxide) sold, allowed and used to make drinkable water. either mobile (in the jungle e.g.) or in even large houses. This can be used to fight all viruses


What also helps very well is to test if you're ill by holding your breath 10 seconds. You can also drink warm water or gorge it, with salt. Or eats lots of garlic. Or stand on your head 1 minute every hour. No doubt there's a lot more that totally helps preventing getting corona!

An even better idea is to stay of Facebook which is most likely the source of these ideas. If you're not joking here and really take this ClO2, please read the warning of the USA FDA against using it: apnews.com/afs:Content:8438840420

We all hope that there's something easy which will prevent or cure corona. If it was already there I am sure one of the leading medicine producers would have brought it to the market massively, with a more than nice profit.

Dick

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Help available 6 days 19 hours ago #13918

  kitz's Avatar kitz Offline Posts: 26
Hello Dick!
Yes this is the usual concern of e.g. FDA.
But always the dose differs if something helps or poisons.
FDA says it is for water treatment. How would it be filtered out afterwards? Like Chloride it stays within. It is not intended to drink it pure, there are rules how many ClO2 in how much water.
And for bleaching mainly cloride hydroxide is used.
At the website unter protocols is told exactly how to use it. And I use this for 10+ years and will not refrain from using it. More to read unter "for healthcare professionals" about effects, toxicology and even patents.
But this is still everyone's own decision.
BR Kurt

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Help available 6 days 14 hours ago #13919

  lumberjack's Avatar Topic Author lumberjack Offline Posts: 661
Hi Kurt,

kitz wrote: Hallo all,
the worst thing is that there is a way to get/stay healthy very easy and it is not recognized my medical services (or banned?...)

Moderators please remove if you feel it is inappropriate...

Well the medical industry don't want you to be healthy, because they then loose a client...

Not many of you might be aware that I am also practicing Nutritional Healing and have treated with great success cancer, blot-clots on the brain all through you guess it, whole food human complete nutritional supplements and a bit of alternative health and quantum technologies Wave Frequency/Rife machines. My Rife machine already have new updates with COVID loaded on it...

But on a more practical level I include some screenshots that I made from a video of a week ago that I watched with some very basic stuff that can help you in preventing or even treat if you do have a COVID infection.

Hope this is of interest...
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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Help available 6 days 4 hours ago #13920

  Chris's Avatar Chris Offline Posts: 1753
Hi Johan,

When you are gonna post info like that, you need to also supply the source of this info. Who wrote this, where he wrote this and who he is. Otherwise, I also do have a lot of opinions of my own about all this, but I cannot post them as facts, because I am not really qualified to do so...
XSharp Development Team
chris(at)xsharp.eu

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Help available 6 days 3 hours ago #13921

  lumberjack's Avatar Topic Author lumberjack Offline Posts: 661
Hi Chris,

Chris wrote: When you are gonna post info like that, you need to also supply the source of this info. Who wrote this, where he wrote this and who he is. Otherwise, I also do have a lot of opinions of my own about all this, but I cannot post them as facts, because I am not really qualified to do so...

Ok, here is the video that I took snapshots from. I tried to omit marketing of my products (nutritional) for obvious reasons, but this is the video from my Spooky2 Rife machines weekly news broadcast. He is saying exactly what our brand's internal nutritionist/dietician advisor also send us. The link

Footnote: The speaker is actually staying in China approx 150km from Wuhan.
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Johan Nel
George, South Africa

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Last edit: by lumberjack.

We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Help available 6 days 2 hours ago #13922

  wriedmann's Avatar wriedmann Away Posts: 2206
Hi Johan,
in these days the only sources you can trust are official government sources - not only from your country, but also from other countries you trust like Germany, or Italy.
Public authorities are highly interested that people remains healthy or are able to recover as fast as possible, therefore they will publish whatever helps people.
Wolfgang
Wolfgang Riedmann
Meran, South Tyrol, Italy

www.riedmann.it - docs.xsharp.it

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Help available 6 days 1 hour ago #13923

  Chris's Avatar Chris Offline Posts: 1753
Hi Wolfgang,

wriedmann wrote: Hi Johan,
in these days the only sources you can trust are official government sources - not only from your country, but also from other countries you trust like Germany, or Italy.
Public authorities are highly interested that people remains healthy or are able to recover as fast as possible, therefore they will publish whatever helps people.
Wolfgang


Unfortunately I have heard a lot of crap from the Greek government or their "speakers" lately. Including suggesting people to take an alternative vaccine that is supposed to help as well, which researches have shown it has nothing to do with the virus we are talking about.

IMO, the only thing you can really trust is your own research at many different sources and trying to tell the truth among a lot of crap we are hearing in the media. In this particular occasion and in general.
XSharp Development Team
chris(at)xsharp.eu

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Help available 6 days 1 hour ago #13924

  Chris's Avatar Chris Offline Posts: 1753
Hi Johan,

lumberjack wrote: Hi Chris,

Chris wrote: When you are gonna post info like that, you need to also supply the source of this info. Who wrote this, where he wrote this and who he is. Otherwise, I also do have a lot of opinions of my own about all this, but I cannot post them as facts, because I am not really qualified to do so...

Ok, here is the video that I took snapshots from. I tried to omit marketing of my products (nutritional) for obvious reasons, but this is the video from my Spooky2 Rife machines weekly news broadcast. He is saying exactly what our brand's internal nutritionist/dietician advisor also send us. The link

Footnote: The speaker is actually staying in China approx 150km from Wuhan.


So this video is from an account named "Spooky2 Rife", which is advocating the use of a "Rife Machine" which supposedly cures cancer, with suggests "healing frequencies" for our curent virus etc...

Really?
XSharp Development Team
chris(at)xsharp.eu

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We now at 554...The scary fact about Corona in South Africa. Help available 6 days 9 minutes ago #13928

  lumberjack's Avatar Topic Author lumberjack Offline Posts: 661

Chris wrote: So this video is from an account named "Spooky2 Rife", which is advocating the use of a "Rife Machine" which supposedly cures cancer, with suggests "healing frequencies" for our curent virus etc...
Really?

@Wolfgang: Firstly I would like to make one comment regarding Wolfgang's response: Do not trust a politician especially not an African one...

@Chris: Think we all know the Soprano who can sing so high that it cracks a glass? Well that is the same principle that a Rife works on, every organ (virus) vibrates at a certain frequency, hence by sending it the correct frequency you can weaken and/or kill. Spooky2 and other Rife manufacturers do not claim to kill it as the alpha and omega, but it can weaken it to such an extend that the body can fight it more effectively. I have two machines: Rife, using electrical current, as well as a non-linear Wave Frequency (using sound) to do the same. In the end there is no cure for any virus, your body need to learn to manufacture the right anti-bodies. It can only do that if you provide it the correct raw materials aka a well balanced diet. But it is not just a diet, it is a well balanced lifestyle, Mind, Body, Soul and Environment.

Ok, I know many people are skeptical, and hence why I included the screenshots. Is it so difficult to vaporize iodine in your house to help disinfecting (and inhaling to kill viruses in the lungs)? We all know Vit C is good for fighting flu etc, Zinc is crucial in healing and work in conjunction with C and E (d-alpha tocopherol form, dl-alpha is synthetic). This is no new news, I can scan for you from "The Complete A-Z of Nutritional Healing (of which I do have a copy), The medical industry don't advocate it, they will not make money. It is all about keeping your immunity up to help your body fight.

I did not want to get into this subject due to skepticism, hence the specific screenshots as I believe it summarized what I do know about combating diseases very concise.
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Johan Nel
George, South Africa

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